Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The Game Outside Of The Game

During the off-season there is a big lull.  Normally we have our Awards Banquet in October or November (2013 is a bit of an anomaly since the Commission has been delinquent in putting together the Award Ballot.  We're a week away from Christmas and haven't had the Banquet yet).  Then we don't have a lot going on until the first Sunday in January when Winter Waivers begin.  Enter Matt Bentel, he's an Idea Man.  He suggested a way for us (him and me) to get through the doledrums of the winter and basketball conversation on talk radio.  He proposed a CFCL type draft with Cub players.

Here's a quick reminder of how the CFCL works.  We draft teams of 23 players fitting specific positions (5 OF, 3B, SS, 2B, MI, 1B, OU, 2 C, 1 U, 9 P).  We accumulate stats in the following categories:  On-Base Percentage, Total Bases, Steals, Runs, RBIs, Quality Starts, Holds+Saves, WHiP, ERA and K/BB.

His idea was for us to draft from all the Cub teams from 1974-2011 (2011 is when we held our draft and 1974 is as early as both of us can remember actually watching Cub games.  Matt, since he is much older, can remember back into the '60s.  I being the youngster can only remember back to 1974).  We would not be allowed to do any statistical research.  Once you drafted a player, you would wait until the end of the draft, THEN do the statistical research and decide which year you wanted to use.  So Matt drafted Ryne Sandberg with his first pick.  Once we completed all the picks Matt looked at Sandberg's career and decided if he wanted the MVP year of 1984, the power year of 1990 or a year when Ryne stole 50 bases (he chose 1990).

We did this on the honor system and then compiled the stats.  The only variance we made from how the CFCL competes is we used Wins instead of Quality Starts and Saves instead of Holds+Saves essentially because baseball-reference.com doesn't provide QS and H+S.  We made one pick per day.  So Matt picked Monday, I picked Tuesday, etc.  This allowed for us to draft over a month and a half, helping to kill the dead of winter.

I will say, as stupid as this may sound, it was the most exhausting exercise I have ever been a part of.  Each day I was emotionally torn between whom I should select or who Matt was going to steal from me.  Below are the results.  Some interesting challenges we faced, for example, was in our pitching selections.  Matt picked Ryan Dempster and I chose Kerry Wood.  Once the draft was over and we selected the seasons we wanted to use the stats for we could look at the other team's roster and anticipate their choices and thus make our own.  But with Wood and Dempster it provided an added layer of strategy.  Why?  Because both Wood and Dempster had years with the Cubs in which they were starters and closers.  Would Matt use Dempster's closing year or starting year?  Should I use Wood as a closer or starter?  Ends up we both chose closer.

There were a myriad of strategies.  I encourage you to find a friend and challenge them to a draft.  This year Matt and I are two picks away from completing a similar draft, but this year our pool of players are Hall of Famers whose careers began 1900 or later.  We also trimmed our rosters to seventeen instead of the full 23 (getting rid of 1 OF, 1 U and 4 P).  The other difference we're doing this year is instead of choosing a player's individual season, we are using the 162 game average line from baseball-reference.com.  Adds another layer of decision making when you realize that a player may have compiled some great stats, but if the last few years of their career were less than stellar, it could kill their yearly average.  I'll post the rosters and results sometime after Christmas.  I don't think I'll be as lucky this year as I was in 2011.

Here are the rosters and stats from our Cubs draft.

Matt At Bats sac flies Hits HBP Walks Runs RBIs Stolen Bases Total Bases OBP IP ER Hits Walks Strikeouts Wins Saves ERA Ratio K:BB
Ryne Sandberg - 1990 615 9 188 1 50 116 100 25 344 0.35407 Rod Beck - 1998 80.3 27 86 20 81 3 51 3.0262 1.3200 4.0500
Derrek Lee - 2005 594 7 199 5 85 120 107 15 393 0.41823 Greg Maddux 1992 268 65 201 70 199 20 0 2.1828 1.0112 2.8429
Aramis Ramirez - 2004 547 7 174 3 49 99 103 0 316 0.37294 Mike Bielecki - 1989 212.3 74 187 81 147 18 0 3.1371 1.2624 1.8148
Keith Moreland - 1985 587 9 180 1 68 74 106 12 258 0.37444 Mark Prior - 2003 211.3 57 183 50 245 18 0 2.4278 1.1027 4.9000
Henry Rodriguez - 1999 447 1 136 0 56 72 87 2 243 0.38095 Ted Lilly - 2008 204.6 93 187 64 184 17 0 4.0909 1.2268 2.8750
Jerome Walton - 1989 475 5 139 6 27 64 46 24 183 0.33528 Mitch Williams - 1989 81.6 25 71 52 67 4 36 2.7574 1.5074 1.2885
Juan Pierre - 2006 699 1 204 8 32 87 40 58 271 0.32973 Ryan Dempster - 2005 92 32 83 49 89 5 33 3.1304 1.4348 1.8163
Mark Grace - 1998 595 7 184 3 93 92 89 4 280 0.40115 Carlos Marmol - 2010 77.6 22 40 52 138 2 38 2.5515 1.1856 2.6538
Alex Gonzalez -2002 513 2 127 3 46 58 61 5 218 0.31206 Carlos Zambrano - 2004 209.2 64 174 81 188 16 0 2.7533 1.2189 2.3210
Geovany Soto - 2008 494 5 141 2 62 66 86 0 249 0.36412 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gary Matthews - 1984 491 10 143 3 103 101 82 17 210 0.41021 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Mark Bellhorn - 2002 445 0 115 6 76 86 56 7 228 0.37381 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bill Madlock - 1976 514 4 174 11 56 68 84 15 257 0.41197 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Michael Barrett - 2004 456 8 131 5 33 55 65 1 223 0.33665 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 7472 75 2235 57 836 1158 1112 185 3673 0.37062   1436.9 459 1212 519 1338 103 158 2.8749 1.2047 2.5780
Rich #DIV/0!
Jody Davis - 1984 523 7 134 1 47 55 94 5 220 0.31488 Rick Reuschel - 1977 252 78 233 74 166 20 0 2.7857 1.2183 2.2432
Andre Dawson - 1987 621 2 178 7 32 90 137 11 353 0.32779 Jon Lieber - 2001 232.3 98 226 41 148 20 0 3.7968 1.1494 3.6098
Moises Alou - 2004 601 6 176 0 68 106 106 3 335 0.36148 Randy Myers - 1993 75.3 26 65 26 86 2 53 3.1076 1.2085 3.3077
Starlin Castro - 2011 674 4 207 2 35 91 66 22 291 0.34126 Lee Smith - 1983 103.3 19 70 41 91 4 29 1.6554 1.0745 2.2195
Rick Monday - 1976 534 3 145 2 60 107 77 5 271 0.34558 Rick Sutcliffe - 1984 150.3 45 123 39 155 16 0 2.6946 1.0778 3.9744
Ivan DeJesus - 1978 619 2 172 2 74 104 35 41 219 0.35581 Bruce Sutter - 1977 107.3 16 69 23 129 7 31 1.3420 0.8574 5.6087
Alfonso Soriano - 2007 579 3 173 4 31 97 70 19 324 0.33712 Kerry Wood - 2008 66.3 24 54 18 84 5 34 3.2579 1.0860 4.6667
Mark DeRosa - 2008 505 8 144 9 69 103 87 6 243 0.37563 Ray Burris - 1976 249 86 251 70 112 15 0 3.1084 1.2892 1.6000
Carlos Pena - 2011 493 7 111 4 101 72 80 2 228 0.35702 Joe Borowski - 2003 68.3 20 53 19 66 2 33 2.6354 1.0542 3.4737
Rick Wilkins - 1993 446 1 135 3 50 78 73 2 250 0.37600 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Leon Durham - 1982 539 2 168 2 66 84 90 28 281 0.38752 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bill Buckner - 1982 657 10 201 5 36 93 105 15 290 0.34181 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Bob Dernier - 1984 536 0 149 2 63 94 32 45 194 0.35607 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Ron Cey - 1983 581 9 160 5 62 73 90 0 267 0.34551 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Total 7908 64 2253 48 794 1247 1142 204 3766 0.35115   1304.1 412 1144 351 1037 91 180 2.8433 1.1464 2.9544
Matt Rich
TB 3673 3766
Runs 1158 1247
RBIs 1112 1142
SB 185 204
OBP 0.37062 0.35115
Wins 10391
Saves 158 180
ERA 2.8749 2.8433
Ratio 1.2047 1.1464
K:BB 2.5780 2.9544

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