Friday, September 13, 2013

Anatomy of a Pennant Race (Part 2)

Here's a look at the top five places of the CFCL 2013 Pennant Chase.  Standings as of 9/11/13.

1.  Clowns 74
2.  Bulls  73
3.  Ruffins  63
4.  DoorMatts  62
5.  Kenndoza Line  57
6.  Beatniks (Beatniks listed yesterday and today to show how they might move up or down the standings).

Beatniks VS Line (9 points separating the teams)
Beatniks could gain 1 SB, 1 OBP, 3 WHiP, 1.5 QS, 3 K/BB, 1 H/S for a total of 10.5 points.
Line could lose 1 OBP, 2 WHiP for a total of 3 points.
13.5 points in play with a nine point deficit.  Beatniks could move up.

Line VS DoorMatts (5 points separating the teams)
Line could gain 1 Run, 1 TB, 1 ERA, 1 WHiP for a total of four points.
DoorMatts could lose 1 OBP, 1ERA, 1 K/BB for a total of three points.
Seven points in play with a five point deficit.  Line could move up.

DoorMatts VS Ruffins (1 point separating the teams)
DoorMatts could gain 1 OBP, 1 WHiP, 1 K/BB for a total of three points.
Ruffins could lose 1 R, 1 TB, .5 QS, 1 K/BB for a total of three and a half points.
6.5 points in play with a one point deficit.  DoorMatts could move up and for all of August and part of September, the DoorMatts and Ruffins in fact have been been trading the third and fourth place slots.

Ruffins VS Bulls  (10 whopping points separating the teams).
Ruffins could gain 1 RBI, 1 ERA, 1 WHiP, .5 QS, 2 K/BB, 1 H/S for a total of six and a half points.
Bulls could lose 1 R, 1 TB, 1 WHiP, .5 QS, 2 K/BB, 1 H/S for a total of six and a half points.
Thirteen  points in play with a ten point deficit.  Amazingly, with two weeks left in the season, the Ruffins could move up.

Bulls VS Clowns (1 point separating the teams).
Bulls could gain 1 OBP, 1 TB, 1 ERA, 1 WHiP, 1.5 QS, 1 K/BB for a total of 6.5 points.
Clowns could lose 1 OBP, 3 WHiP, .5 QS, 3 K/BB for a total of 7.5 points.
Two weeks left in the season and there could be a fourteen point swing with the top two teams.  Bulls could move up.  And in fact, for August and September the Bulls and Clowns have been flipflopping the top two places in the standings.

Disclaimer**  This is all potential stuff.  For any head-to-head matchup diagnosed above and yesterday to happen, all the right (or wrong) things must happen.  The reality is that some of this and some of that will happen.  The amazing point to this Anatomy of a Pennant Race is that with two weeks left in the season, EVERY SINGLE TEAM has the ability to move up or down in the standings.  That speaks volumes to the parity of the talent of the owners in this league as well as the detailed attention they give their team week in and week out.  Oh, sure it could be luck or a special convergence of events.  But as we saw yesterday, this is the fourth year out of the last five where we very well won't know the CFCL champion until the last out of the last game of the season.

Further proving that point, [get this, this is amazing] the Bulls and Clowns are adjacent to each other in FIVE categories and four of those categories it is completely possible that one could pass the other.  That is eight points that will be in play until the final game of the season.

No comments:

Post a Comment